It’s been a little quiet lately, at least as far as dealing with the subjects I am comfortable bringing up here. The low key atmosphere is a welcome relief from the past several months where there seemed to be a blockbuster news story about the economy each day. An unfortunate thing is that the government is accused of falling asleep at the wheel if they are not actively doing something to improve the state of the economy. I think it’s time for the government employees to all take a variant of Hippocratic oath and first do no harm. That being said, we will probably determine that a few things the government did were beneficial, though some things that are not will probably effect us for far too long.
I hope and believe we are at the turning point. That the market bottomed at the beginning of March. The quarter we just started will possibly be flat, meaning no or very little decline in GDP, followed by strong positive GDP growth in the second half of the year. The Fed is printing money as fast as they can, the economy is floating on a sea of cash, and Mark-to-market accounting rules have been adjusted favorably. The unemployment rate will likely increase for the rest of the year, but hopefully it will not travel far into double digits, or stay there for long. That is a recipe for social upheaval, and no one would benefit from the consequences of that.
So, things are looking up, and I imagine the rapid recovery we will likely experience for the rest of the year will make the doomsayers appear foolish once again.